Declines Measured in All Regions Except Europe
Shift in Purchase Interest from Higher Priced Single and Twin Engine Models To
Less Expensive New Models and Used Aircraft
Anaheim, Feb. 22, 2009 – Honeywell (NYSE: HON) announced today that its
eleventh Turbine-Powered Civil Helicopter Purchase Outlook projects flat to
slightly higher deliveries of new civil use helicopters during the five-year
period 2009 – 2013 compared to the 2004 - 2008 period. A lack of financing
availability (where 30% of sales are financed), a sharp rise in inventories of
used current production models for sale, weak new order intake and an uncertain
and unpredictable global economic environment are constraining growth.
Both OEM new order intake and utilization of turbine-powered helicopters has
dropped significantly in the past few months and the inventory of current
production helicopters for sale has doubled since September, 2008. Deliveries
are expected to match 2008 levels in 2009 then decline somewhat in 2010 and
2011. Due to the uncertainty of the global economy, the timing of a recovery is
undefined and the current cycle may take several years to fully resolve.
Survey purchase plans fell 12% in 2010, 7% in 2011 and exhibited additional,
but less well defined erosion in 2012. Industry backlog is expected to be under
pressure over this period absent a quick rebound in order rates. Current OEM
production schedules for civil turbine-powered helicopters do not suggest a
downturn in deliveries will occur during the next several years. However,
survey data indicate a reduction in demand for new helicopters is likely during
the coming years and we do not believe the backlog will be able to prevent a
decline in production during the recessionary period. Five year new helicopter
purchase expectations fell 21% in North America, 45% in Latin America, 25% in
Asia, 20.5% in Africa/Middle East but were flat in Europe. European respondents
were somewhat more optimistic about near term purchases. Some respondents
mentioned that new aircraft financing was being promoted by several European
governments while others talked of plans to expand their operations into
Africa, Middle East and Asia.
Expectations fell sharply in several product segments which contain larger,
more expensive helicopters and rose in segments featuring smaller, less
expensive machines. Five year expectations for medium twins fell 43%,
intermediate twins fell 49% and long cabin light singles fell 28%. Short cabin
single engine mentions rose 29% while light twins were up 23%. An unexpectedly
large number of operators expect to replace larger more expensive helicopters
with smaller less expensive ones. For example, for current owners of
intermediate and medium twins who plan to sell and replace their helicopters
during the next five years, 22% of replacement aircraft will be downsized light
multi engine and single engine aircraft. In the 2008 survey only 4.6% of all
expected purchases were trade-downs versus 9% in the 2009 survey. Trade-ups
fell from 16% of all expected five year purchases in 2008 to under 11% in
2009.
Corporate, emergency medical services (EMS), law enforcement and utility
helicopters combined are expected to account for more than 80% of all global
new civil rotorcraft sales during the five-year forecast period. This finding
is unchanged from the 2008 survey.
Some key findings revealed by the annual survey of civil helicopter operators’
purchase expectations are:
• Estimated civil helicopter deliveries are expected to reach similar levels to
2008 in 2009, supported extensively by current backlogs, which are expected to
face mounting pressure by the end of 2011 absent a rapid economic
recovery.
• New order intake in 2009 is expected to decline sharply and will not
normalize until a sustained global economic recovery begins and additional
aircraft financing becomes available. Eurocopter recently announced that they
expected near-term order intake to drop 36% while Bell stated publically that
they had only sold 3 helicopters in January 2009 compared to 40 in January
2008.
• Production of new helicopters is forecast to decline in 2010, 2011 and
possibly 2012.
• The peak-to-trough decline in deliveries could exceed the post 2001 industry
cycle in percentage terms suggesting deliveries could dip near 2006-2007 annual
rates in the next two years.
“Honeywell Aerospace’s 2009 survey has reaffirmed avionics capabilities,
performance and power, along with cabin volume as the top criteria operators
consider when selecting new helicopters,” said Mike Cuff, Honeywell Vice
President, Helicopters & Surface Systems. “The decision to acquire new
helicopters is driven primarily by the age of current aircraft which is usually
reflected in an operator’s desire for better technology, more range, more
power, cargo or passenger capacity and lower operating costs. This holds true
even in the tough economic environment faced by operators around the world,”
Cuff said.
In North America, law enforcement applications were the most frequently
mentioned use category with 27.5% of all mentions. Corporate use came in at 24%
and EMS at 21%. Emphasis on security and police capabilities was higher than
any other category.
While the 2009 outlook projects annual turbine helicopter delivery levels
declining in the near term, survey findings indicate that latent demand could
drive rates of over 1,000 units a year when the global economy is reestablished
on a strong growth track later in the forecast period.
Purchase Expectations Survey
The eleventh worldwide survey of civil helicopter operators’ future purchase
plans compares with last year’s outlook with reduced demand for new aircraft
over the next five years. Purchase expectations fell about 21% globally,
measured on the basis of specific new helicopter purchase plans in 2009 over
2008 levels.
The survey continues to show that there was little trade-up expectation among
the world operator base. Around 80% of new purchases will be made to replace
older aircraft in the same size/capability and price class. Less than 11% of
operators plan to trade-up to more expensive and capable machines. There was no
segment with any significant trade up aspirations. For example, 54% of surveyed
current heavy multi-engine operators’ new aircraft replacement plans focused on
dramatically smaller light-multiengine craft.
Buyer interest declined broadly across regions and model segments and there is
every indication that a demand decline is likely to occur in the near future.
These findings are based on inputs from over 1,000 flight departments.
Consistently since 2003, over half of all European purchase expectations have
been for twin-engine models. This year’s findings show 56% of European purchase
plans falling in the multi-engine helicopter class. Regulations requiring
twin-engine aircraft on flights over congested areas and other use limitations
continue to shape the preferences of the European operators. Light twins were
the most frequently mentioned multi-engine product segment, capturing over 36%
of all European mentions. In a near repeat of last year’s result, single engine
models were strong for the fourth year in a row at 44 % of expected
purchases.
In North America, where there are no current or pending regulations requiring
twin-engine aircraft, 62.3% of planned purchases are for single-engine
aircraft. This actually represents a slide of around 7.5% in the popularity of
light single models over the past three years. Virtually all the shift in
demand went to the light twin engine category which rose 1.2 points to 25.1% in
the 2009 survey. In Latin America, 46% of planned purchases are for
single-engine models, down for a third year in a row. In both regions the
single engine share has begun to fall off in favor of light twins. Operator
preferences in Asia, The Middle East, Africa and Oceania strongly favor
twin-engine machines maintaining a 67-77% share in the 2009 survey slightly
higher than last year’s levels.
“Honeywell’s global demand projections now stand at 3,500 to 4,500 new
Helicopter deliveries during the period 2009-2013 reflecting industry
conditions that have weakened perceptibly compared to the last five years” Cuff
said. “The uncertain global economic climate has resulted in a range of
outcomes for the next five year period.”
37% of New Turbine Demand Projected in North America
North America continues to provide the greatest regional share of demand for
new helicopters, accounting for 37% of planned future purchases, a slightly
lower share to last year’s outlook. Buying plans fell 21% in this year’s survey
compared to 2008.
Survey responses indicate that North America will still predominate in the
purchase of light single-engine helicopters. On average more than 62% of future
new aircraft purchases in this region are expected to be light singles, though
this is somewhat lower as noted, than prior trends.
Avionics capabilities, aircraft age, new technology, mission requirements and
cabin volume were the most frequently mentioned factors by North American
operators as to their reasons for planning to purchase new aircraft.
European Fleet Replacement and Expansion Plans Flat
The survey shows continued improvement in European global share, moving up to
nearly 30% of the extrapolated 5 year market in 2009 compared to 27% in 2008.
The increase in global share was the result of European expectations remaining
flat while all other regions fell. Broadly distributed buying plans again
favors multi-engine machines compared to last year. As we moved further beyond
the implementation of the single engine operations regulations in Europe, the
spike in planned orders and deliveries of twin engine helicopters has softened
however, interest in less costly single-engine models has trended down during
the last 3 years. Over 56% of five year planned European purchases are for
multi-engine models. Survey responses suggest that about 30% of world new
turbine-powered helicopter sales will occur in Europe during the next five year
period, an improvement of three points over the 2008 survey share. Some of the
gains are attributable to growth in emerging Eastern Europe and Russia, though
the pace of expansion has stalled in the short term.
Some European operators plan to expand their operations into Asia, Africa and
the Middle East. European operators cite mission requirements and updated
technology/avionics capabilities as the top reasons for acquiring a new
helicopter. Other important factors are aircraft age, cabin size, performance,
and speed. The corporate and general utility use categories were most
frequently mentioned by European respondents followed by EMS, and law
enforcement.
Asia, Pacific, Africa and Middle East to Capture Nearly 18% Global Share of
Five Year Market
New aircraft purchase expectations fell 25% in Asia and 20.5% in Middle
East/Africa compared to the 2008 survey. The sharp decline in oil prices and
declining economic growth in Asia were key contributing factors.
Between 67 – 77% of future demand in these regions is expected to be for
multi-engine craft. Operators cited cabin size, new technology/avionics and
mission requirements most frequently as key reasons for replacing current
helicopters. Intermediate and medium twins were most frequently mentioned for 5
year purchase.
In Asia/Pacific close to 52% of expected purchases will be for corporate
applications, followed by utility and oil exploration. In Africa / Middle East,
oil and gas exploration applications remain most frequently mentioned at 48.6%,
followed by corporate uses at 31.4%.
Latin American Purchase Expectations Fall Sharply
Latin American new helicopter expectations fell 44.8% compared to the 2008
survey finding. Despite the large drop in buying plans, this region is still
forecast to absorb about 15% of global five year new aircraft production.
Approximately 46% of expected new aircraft demand in the region is for
single-engine helicopters. This statistic has been trending down for the past
three years with light twins capturing the share and reaching 28.4% of all
mentions in the 2009 survey. Age, new technology/avionics, mission requirements
and speed were most frequently mentioned as reasons for purchase. Corporate end
use continues to be far and away the most popular application for new
helicopters planned for purchase in Latin America at a 69.3% level. EMS and
utility applications were the second at 9% each.
Civil Turbine Helicopter Survey Results
The 2009 Turbine Powered Civil Helicopter Outlook is based on Honeywell’s
recently conducted customer expectations survey, an assessment of consensus
forecasts, review of factory delivery rates and analysis of future new
helicopter introductions. The 2009 outlook excludes uniformed military demand
for civil helicopters but resulting civil estimates do include government and
security force demand.
This year’s survey queried 1036 chief pilots and flight department managers of
companies operating over 2,000 helicopters worldwide. The survey excluded large
fleet or “mega” operators which were interviewed separately. The survey
detailed the types of aircraft operated and assessed specific plans to replace
or add to the fleet with new aircraft.
The 2009 outlook presents a snapshot of the helicopter business at a point in
time and does not reflect unforeseen events such as an unexpected economic
downturn, the impact of government stimulus programs, sharp increases or
decreases in fuel costs, a fuel availability crisis, imposition of heavy user
fees or other unfavorable regulations / taxes that could affect results in
future years. Demand for new helicopters is also highly price sensitive.
Decisions by aircraft manufacturers to offer discounts or raise prices can
significantly influence sales activity on affected models.
Demand by Helicopter Size Category
Light Single-engine Helicopters: Operators continue to express a strong
preference for light single-engine helicopters in their purchase expectations,
choosing this class of aircraft 48.3 % of the time, a slightly higher level
compared to the 2008 survey. Overall mentions for light singles fell 20%
however the entire decline was with more expensive longer cabin models like the
Bell 407, EC130 and AS350 series. Mentions for smaller light singles like the
EC120 and Bell 206B3 actually increased 29% over the 2008 survey. Mentions for
Popular helicopters within this class include the Bell 206 series and 407,
AgustaWestland A119, Eurocopter EC120, AS350/EC130, Robinson R66, Enstrom 480
and MD 500 and MD600 series. Regionally, the light single class is highly
popular in North America, cited in 62% of new purchase expectations. Latin
American operators also reported a strong preference for this class of
equipment with 46% of regional demand however the share has been declining
since 2006. In Europe, regulations requiring multi-engine aircraft limit the
appeal of single-engine models. Though sizable at about 44%, the average share
of planned single-engine purchases in this region has also been trending down
each year since 2006. Demand for single-engine models in Africa, Middle East,
Asia and Oceania is relatively low compared to the Americas and Europe falling
in the 23-33% range.
Light Twins: Purchase expectation groupings for new helicopters in the
light multi-engine class are exemplified by the Bell 429, Eurocopter EC135,
AS355, AgustaWestland A109 series, and MD 902. Expectations for the future
purchase of aircraft in this segment during the next five years rose 23% in the
2009 survey as some operators of larger machines said they plan to downsize to
light twins.
The largest regional demand for light twins will be in Europe, with a 36%
projected share of total regional purchases, up 10.5 percentage points compared
to 2008. Gains in demand for light twins were recorded in all other regions - -
Africa/Middle East gained 9.8 points, Asia was up 6.3 points, Latin America’s
share increased 5.3 points and North America was up 1.2 points.
Intermediate and Medium Twin Helicopters: Purchase mentions for new
intermediate twin-engine helicopters as a class fell almost 50% compared to the
2008 survey. Popular models include the EC145 and AS365. Close to 60% of demand
for intermediate twin class helicopters is in North America and Europe.
The medium twin class includes the AW139, S76 series, EC155 and Bell 412
models. These are especially popular in the oil and gas industry. Purchase
mentions for this class fell 43% compared to the 2008 survey. Certainly, the
sharp decline in oil prices and the global economic slowdown’s impact on other
raw material and construction related industries has impacted future purchase
expectations for medium twins. Close to 40% of world demand for this class is
in the Asia/Africa and Middle East regions.
Heavy Lift Helicopters: Heavy lift helicopters continue to exhibit
relatively low purchase expectation scores relative to the other classes of
aircraft, with share of mentions running between 1% and 5% over the last four
surveys. Heavy twin mentions were flat compared to the 2008 survey. As
discussed in our previous outlooks, this low level of demand is to be expected,
both as a function of higher prices for larger helicopters as well as the more
narrowly defined applications such craft typically serve. Based on the level of
Oil and gas support and exploration being handled by large fleet operators, we
feel that demand for this class of helicopter as well as the intermediate class
may be somewhat understated in the survey feedback. Additional demand for this
class aircraft often comes from governmental or “para-public” sources that this
survey may not always reach. Geographically, the bulk of projected demand for
heavy helicopters is concentrated in Asia with 64% of 2009 heavy multi
mentions.
Demand by Primary Use of New Turbine Helicopters
Corporate and EMS: Corporate and EMS were the leading applications for
which operators said they would purchase new helicopters in the 2009 survey.
The corporate segment, the largest use category, totaled about 40% of the
projected world new turbine helicopter sales. Substantial demand exists for new
corporate use helicopters in nearly all world regions. Close to 70% of all
demand in Latin America is for corporate-use machines, followed by Asia at over
50%, Europe at over 40%, Africa / Middle East at 31% followed by North America
at a slightly increased rate of 24%.
Mentioned second most frequently as a use category for new aircraft purchases,
new helicopter buying plans for EMS applications comprise 14.7% of total
demand. The most interest in EMS helicopters is in North America, accounting
for about 21% of regional demand.
Utility and Law Enforcement: World expectations for the purchase of new
helicopters for utility usage were measured at just over 14% of total demand
this year. Utility helicopter demand was especially strong in Europe and Asia,
with a >;21% share of mentions for these regions. Expected demand for law
enforcement helicopters was very strong in North America, where 27.5% of all
new aircraft mentions were for law enforcement aircraft. Globally, about 14% of
all new aircraft mentions were for law enforcement helicopters.
Oil and Gas Support: The oil and gas production and exploration
segment’s share of new aircraft fell to 5.6% in the 2009 survey after posting a
9% share in 2008 and a 14% share in the 2007 survey. This falloff is most
certainly linked to the sharp declines in oil prices and demand. Based on the
makeup of the survey respondent pool, Honeywell feels these levels likely
understate true demand levels in this segment. Additional research with
mega-operators was used to augment the survey and is reflected in the overall
demand and equipment class share projections in the outlook. Regional interest
in new helicopters for this industry continues to be highest in
Africa/Middle-East at 49% of that region’s demand followed by Asia/Pacific at
14%.
Operators in other segments such as Television News, Tourism, Firefighting and
Training continue to report projected requirements for new helicopters over the
next five years at levels well below the applications discussed above. The only
use segment in this group with any significant share of mentions was tourism
and sightseeing, which captured 6.4% of global mentions.
Planned Turbine Helicopter Utilization Rate Growthbr />; Overall,
respondents reported using their turbine-powered helicopters between 350 and
544 hours during the past 12 months. The averages are higher in emerging high
growth regions like Asia and Africa/Middle East. Use rates vary by region, with
the highest utilization rates in North America, Africa/Middle-East and Asia.
Europe and Latin America had the lowest utilization rates.
Survey data clearly indicates that on a global basis, the vast majority of
operators plan to use their aircraft at least as much as or more than they did
during the past 12 months. In North America and Europe, about 90% of
respondents expect their utilization to be the same or greater than the prior
12 month period. Looking ahead, nearly all Latin America operators polled
indicated that utilization would remain steady or rise again this year.
Estimates for steady or higher utilization growth in Africa and the Middle East
and Asia/Pacific operations run in the 89-93% range. All three regions have
strong percentages of operators planning to increase utilization rates.
Although there is no tracking of actual helicopter utilization, Honeywell has
received inputs from several reliable industry sources that indicate turbine
helicopter utilization has dropped off in some usage segments and in some
regions. We are also well aware that Governments at all levels are facing
budget shortfalls and may be forced to reduce helicopter usage in the near
term. Government and press scrutiny of corporate aircraft use, including
helicopters, may also influence purchases and utilization adversely. This
suggests that the survey data may be somewhat more optimistic than what is
actually occurring in the field.
Honeywell International is a $37 billion diversified technology and
manufacturing leader, serving customers worldwide with aerospace products and
services; control technologies for buildings, homes and industry; automotive
products; turbochargers; and specialty materials. Based in Morris Township,
N.J., Honeywell’s shares are traded on the New York, London, and Chicago Stock
Exchanges. For additional information, please visit www.honeywell.com
Based in Phoenix, Honeywell’s aerospace business is a leading global provider
of integrated avionics, engines, systems and service solutions for aircraft
manufacturers, airlines, business and general aviation, military, space and
airport operations.
This release contains forward-looking statements as defined in Section 21E of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, including statements about future business
operations, financial performance and market conditions. Such forward-looking
statements involve risks and uncertainties inherent in business forecasts as
further described in our filings under the Securities Exchange Act.
Media Contact:
Bill Reavis
(602) 365-2055
bill.reavis@honeywell.com
Supporing DocumentsHAI_Deck_09.pdf